Tonight, I would like to introduce what will be a National (Ok just Political Partisan and its readers) institution…. Something I would like to call… (wait for it)….
Saturday Poll Vaulting
What is it and why should you care you ask… Well it is our weekly (and short) recap of the important polls of the week. Where the candidates stand Nationally and Battleground with some interesting (and stimulating) commentary up the the election. Now I’m not some statistician so if you expect any kind of mathematical analysis coming from me you’re better off reading the New York Times (Ok maybe not). I admit that this is an easy way to keep my posting pledge alive through the month but Saturday tends to be a slow political news day anyway so get over it! (winky face)
Also, I think that it is an appropriate week to start since change is in the air….
So Nationally this week we only have 2 polls: Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking… our standbys. Rasmussen is a 3 day tracking poll and Gallup a 7 day.
Rasmussen: O:47 R:49
Gallup: O:49 R46
What’s good about this is we sort of have a baseline since the election really got started on October 3rd.
And we have a few Battlegrounds: Rasmussen (FL, OH, VA), WeAskAmerica (FL,OH,VA), Gravis (CO, NV), PPP (WI)
Rasmussen: FL: O:47 R:49 OH: O:50 R 49 VA: O:48 R:49
WeAskAmerica: FL: O:46 R:49 OH: O:46 R:47 VA: O:45 R:48
Gravis: CO: O:46 R:49 NV: O:49 R:48
PPP: WI: O:49 R:47
So what can we surmise from these new polls this week? Well, I’ve began to look at this election as the tale of two campaigns. That would be BFD and AFD (Before First Debate and After First Debate). If we look at these as a snapshot of an election cycle that has been going on for many months one could make the case that this is just a very good debate bounce that Romney received from his thorough thrashing he gave to Obama on Wednesday, that it will come back to what is was last week and that one might not be wrong. But, I like to see this cycle differently…
I’ve been having this argument with just about anybody who might want spend time arguing with me (and with someone who has had at least a passive interesting in the election the last few months). My opinion seems to be in the minority but here it is… I feel that because of this unusually long election cycle (it’s been going on for a year for jeez sake!) and the incessant political ads and news that have been bombarding people for the last year, they have run quickly away in the other direction covering their eyes and ears simultaneously (is that possible?) which mumbling “ya ya ya ya I don’t wanna hear I don’t wanna! (or maybe that was one of my daughters but I digress). How else could you explain the little poll movement in the last 6 months despite Obama’s best effort to kill Romney’s character as early as possible? So now just a month before the election the electorate finally tuned in (in droves according to the Nielsen ratings which were the highest for a first debate since 1980) and are making their decisions based on what they hear and see from here on out. So if we look at these polls that way, as if we just stepped off a Martian Spaceship 4 days ago and were meeting these candidates for the first time what do we get?
We wonder why anybody would think Obama could win this thing. If it isn’t a bounce and with the imminent destruction of Biden in 5 days what it all points to is a big Romney win. Tell me how I’m wrong, I’m all ears….
Of course, we’ll have another report new Report next Saturday and you’ll see that my mind could change. (smiley face)